Sentiment is extremely bullish

Sentiment is extremely bullish

I have been tracking the bull/bear spread from Investor Intelligence for as long as I can remember. It's not the type of thing I look at every week or even every month, but when it feels like sentiment is extreme, I like to be able to quantify it and this is a great tool for that.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

The FOMC statement is out

The FOMC statement is out

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

By: Leo Kolivakis

20-year return differential: no dividend vs. high dividend stocks

20-year return differential: no dividend vs. high dividend stocks

Been waiting for a while. Either the mean reversion is overdue by a dozen years, or "this time is different." But this time is not different; it never is.

By: Daniel Peris

Shifting the goal posts for the fed funds rate

Shifting the goal posts for the fed funds rate

While a few rate cuts seem appropriate (per the Fed’s own estimates), the market’s earlier expectations for 6-7 rate cuts are getting unwound. As of last week, the forward curve is pricing in a 3.7% fed funds rate in 2025. Even that seems too low, but it’s better than the low-3’s priced in at the beginning of the year.

By: Jurrien Timmer

NVIDIA vs. Bitcoin and Gold

NVIDIA vs. Bitcoin and Gold

NVIDIA and Bitcoin seem locked in a fierce battle, each striving to become the most coveted route to riches for ordinary investors. Fuelled by "animal spirits," enthusiastic investors are writing a rosy narratives for both and their futures. What do you think?

By: James Eagle

Home builder confidence is on the rise

Home builder confidence is on the rise

"Home builder confidence climbed three points to 51 in March … It marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the first time that the sentiment level has surpassed the breakeven point of 50 since last July."

By: Daily Chartbook

Top 10 stocks as a share of global market cap

Top 10 stocks as a share of global market cap

Brilliant chart by the wonderful folks at Longview Economics showing the Top 10 stocks as a share of global market cap (%).

By: Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA

Markets are not worried about Europe

Markets are not worried about Europe

The European economy continues to fight weak growth prospects as Germany drags down the block's momentum and as the ECB's benchmark interest rate is expected to remain at record highs for longer.

By: Boris Kovacevic

Credit card default rates are soaring

Credit card default rates are soaring

WARNING: Credit card default rate for small lenders have just hit a new record of 7.8%. These levels have never been seen since 1991.

By: Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA

Appraisers have the power

Appraisers have the power

CRE appraisals: Imagineering gradually gives way to reality. / What if all the sales are distressed?

“There’s a lot of money and control rights at stake, all depending upon the appraiser’s determination [of CRE value].”

By: Dave Wald