Here's yet another sign that apartment supply will plunge in the second half of 2025 and into 2026: Multifamily permits continue to drop off, and in January 2024 hit the lowest levels since the COVID lockdown era. And there's little reason to expect that storyline to change any time soon.

By: Jay Parsons

US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg

By: Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA

Chart of the day: Margin debt security dealers and brokers vs SP 500.

By: Andre Chelhot, CFA

On share buybacks and earnings inflation: Share buybacks are important because they raise the payout ratio for equities (i.e., the percentage of earnings which get returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks). A higher payout commands a higher valuation.

By: Jurrien Timmer

Rule of 20 (suggests market is fairly valued when P/E + CPI year/year equal 20) shows that S&P 500 is getting increasingly expensive.

By: Liz Ann Sonders

Bank credit has had a massive contraction when looking at percentage change over 1y. See previous contractions on the graph.

By: Ryan Lemand, PhD

The number of weekly increases in the S&P 500 is the most overextended it has been in over 50 years.

By: Otavio (Tavi) Costa

“While a big gap is still expected for 1Q, the [earnings] growth differential is expected to narrow meaningfully in 2Q (+20% for the Mag. 7 vs. +8% for the 493), close the gap in 3Q and reverse for the 493 in Q4.”

By: Daily Chartbook

"The share of households expecting their financial situation to improve over the next year just hit the highest levels since September [2020] and the second-highest since the start of COVID."

By: Daily Chartbook

Per NY Fed survey, 1-year inflation expectations fell in January to lowest since December 2020; 3-year expectations fell to lowest on record.

By: Liz Ann Sonders