Sentiment is extremely bullish

Sentiment is extremely bullish

I have been tracking the bull/bear spread from Investor Intelligence for as long as I can remember. It's not the type of thing I look at every week or even every month, but when it feels like sentiment is extreme, I like to be able to quantify it and this is a great tool for that.

By: Francois Trahan, M2SD

The FOMC statement is out

The FOMC statement is out

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

By: Leo Kolivakis

20-year return differential: no dividend vs. high dividend stocks

20-year return differential: no dividend vs. high dividend stocks

Been waiting for a while. Either the mean reversion is overdue by a dozen years, or "this time is different." But this time is not different; it never is.

By: Daniel Peris

Shifting the goal posts for the fed funds rate

Shifting the goal posts for the fed funds rate

While a few rate cuts seem appropriate (per the Fed’s own estimates), the market’s earlier expectations for 6-7 rate cuts are getting unwound. As of last week, the forward curve is pricing in a 3.7% fed funds rate in 2025. Even that seems too low, but it’s better than the low-3’s priced in at the beginning of the year.

By: Jurrien Timmer

NVIDIA vs. Bitcoin and Gold

NVIDIA vs. Bitcoin and Gold

NVIDIA and Bitcoin seem locked in a fierce battle, each striving to become the most coveted route to riches for ordinary investors. Fuelled by "animal spirits," enthusiastic investors are writing a rosy narratives for both and their futures. What do you think?

By: James Eagle