Small business hiring is dropping

Small business hiring is dropping

From the excellent research team at Gavekal, the above graph shows that small business hiring in the U.S. is going down and this is typically a leading indicator regarding U.S. unemployment rates.

By: Ryan Lemand, PhD

Commercial real estate risk

Commercial real estate risk

Commercial real estate risk has changed over the last few years. Hotel and hospitality default risk rose following the lockdown period of the pandemic, but has fallen in recent years as people return to travel and vacation.

By: Robert Spendlove

History often rhymes, but never repeats

History often rhymes, but never repeats

Many of us know the saying "history often rhymes, but never repeats". In my view, that couldn't be more true of the chart below. This represents the ratio of SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) / SPX (S&P 500).

By: Oliver Loutsenko

Renters are signing longer leases

Renters are signing longer leases

Apartment renters are signing longer leases than ever -- often at lower rates than otherwise, allowing property managers to better protect occupancy exposure against oncoming new supply. Win/win.

By: Jay Parsons