From the excellent research team at Gavekal, the above graph shows that small business hiring in the U.S. is going down and this is typically a leading indicator regarding U.S. unemployment rates.
Commercial real estate risk has changed over the last few years. Hotel and hospitality default risk rose following the lockdown period of the pandemic, but has fallen in recent years as people return to travel and vacation.
This is simply incredible… At 2.6 trillion USD, Nvidia’s market cap is now 890 billion USD higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector (combined!).
Many of us know the saying "history often rhymes, but never repeats". In my view, that couldn't be more true of the chart below. This represents the ratio of SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) / SPX (S&P 500).
Apartment renters are signing longer leases than ever -- often at lower rates than otherwise, allowing property managers to better protect occupancy exposure against oncoming new supply. Win/win.