There are many indicators that help investors determine wether there’s value in the market or it has gone ahead of itself. One of the simplest ones, is the so called “Buffet indicator”, which simply looks at the total market cap of the equity market, using the Wilshire 5000 index as a proxy, as a percentage of U.S. gdp. It reached 200% after the pandemic in 2021 as gdp was affected by COVID, and the market benefited from the Fed and Congress stimuli. And although it has retracted a little bit, it remains elevated around 170%. For reference, the dotcom bust happened when the indicator reached around 150%, and for the gfc, it reached just above 100%. This is probably the reason why Mr Buffet holds now $160Bn in cash, following his saying be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Buffett indicator is on the rise again