Presidential election years are always tricky. They’re generally positive, as you can see on the chart below, with only 4 years with negative returns since 1936. But that doesn’t show the full picture as they’re generally volatile with a lot of uncertainty until Election Day. And then, a tension release rally tends to happen. This year has been abnormally strong for the S&P500, second only to 1936 over the period shown in the chart. Corporate earnings and buybacks have been relatively strong, pushing the index to all time highs. It has also been seasonally abnormal with a strong September, on the back of the first rate cut in 2 years and with good prospects of more dovish policy. What are the implications for the end of the year and 2025? At this valuations and with a de for rotation going on, does this market have enough strength to keep going?
Election year returns