In my new president’s message, I share my outlook on the economy and our journey to the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.
The stubbornness of inflation early this year indicates that progress toward the objective will likely come more slowly than I had hoped. But we will get there. And rather than holding the federal funds rate steady until we are at the target, I would favor reducing the policy rate once I gain additional confidence that we are clearly on the path to the 2 percent objective.
What would provide that confidence? I need to see a few signals, including progress in shelter prices and services prices more broadly, along with a narrowing of the breadth of price changes across all goods and services. Overall, I want to make sure we achieve sustainable price stability, a stability that will persist beyond an initial attainment of a 2 percent numerical headline.
I continue to believe conditions will likely call for a cut in the federal funds rate in the fourth quarter of this year. Yet, the pandemic years have brought many surprises, and so I’m not locked in to any particular policy path.
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