FX volatility, the US dollar and political uncertainty all tend to rise going into the election month. A change of the ruling party, more than anything else, could spark FX volatility. Markets perceive Trump as dollar positive given his rhetoric on trade and China and plans to cut taxes. This is likely true shortly before and after the election. However, it is unclear if the Trump era dollar gains were driven by the US economy outperforming its peers or specifically the trade war that started in 2018. What can be said is that the global economy is now more vulnerable to shocks than six or eight years ago.
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