The widening divide between the have and have-nots

🏎️ Ferrari Has Been Crushing Dollar General: Here’s What That Tells You

The pandemic and the inflation surge have helped create a two-speed economy. In the fast lane, the well-off have zipped ahead, reaping rewards from lockdown-era savings, skyrocketing stock prices, and attractive interest rates on their bank accounts. Meanwhile, in the bumper-to-bumper slow lane, folks are sputtering along, grappling with a higher cost of living and rising debt costs.

This contrast is clearly reflected in how different companies are performing. Take Ferrari and Dollar General, for example. The Italian luxury sports car brand has hit record highs, while the US discount retail chain continues a prolonged slide.

This split isn’t an anomaly – it's a snapshot of the widening divide between the "haves" and the "have-nots". The same story is playing out in the S&P 500: a few big names are booming, while a lot of smaller companies are fighting to stay afloat.

Now, because the haves – whether individuals or businesses – hold more weight in consumer and stock circles, their gains have been propping up the broader economy and market. But don't be fooled: this surface-level shine conceals a more fragile foundation.

Think of it like a thin sheet of ice over a lake: it appears solid, but every new step adds pressure, testing its limits. And though it may hold for a while, as the weight above increases, so does the risk of a break and a plunge into the frigid water below.

And there are more potential burdens on the horizon as the job market shows signs of weakening. Layoffs could lead to tighter consumer spending, which would squeeze company profits and potentially trigger a new round of job cuts – a vicious cycle. And if they sense trouble ahead, investors may start seeking bigger safety nets, which often means pushing down valuations and stock prices. And it’s likely to make them feel poorer, reversing the “wealth effect” that’s been propping up spending and investments.

We’re already seeing signs of this heaviness expand, with “more accessible” luxury brands like Gucci, Hugo Boss, and Burberry starting to feel the pressure. The more it spreads, the more the global economy and markets become exposed to risk.

The ice might hold, but you’d be wise to keep a safety blanket nearby, just in case.