For the past two years, economists and market analysts have consistently warned of an impending US recession. Yield curve inversions, aggressive Fed hikes, tightening credit conditions, and elevated recession probabilities in economic models all pointed to a looming downturn. Yet, despite these warning signs, the US economy has remained remarkably resilient, defying predictions of a slowdown and delivering above-trend growth. Instead of contracting, GDP has continued to expand at a healthy pace, the labor market has held firm, and consumer spending has remained robust. The risk of a slowdown remains, but the timeline has been pushed further out.
US recession probabilities have plummeted